Terrorism against tourism, what risks

Terrorism against tourism, what risks

With at least eight attacks or attempted attack in nine months, the latest one week ago, in the Thalys from Amsterdam to Paris, France is one of the most regular victims of terrorist acts. She did, however, never hosted as many tourists: the bar of the 85 million foreign visitors should be exceeded at the end of the year, world record. Amazing paradox. "Seen from abroad, Paris in January seemed to fire and blood. Yet people have returned, "says Jean-Marc Roze, general secretary of the National Union of Travel Agents (SNAV). "Before, it was easy to wait a year after an attack that tourism reparte. Now, from the time when the real security measures are implemented, the recovery is fast, "relativize René-Marc Chikli, president of the Union of Tour Operating companies (Seto). "It also depends on the uniqueness of the destination or not. A Mediterranean beach is not very different from another, "says Jean-Marc Roze. In this context, France, deemed safe (26,000 police were mobilized in Paris this summer) and has a unique heritage, winning spell. But Tunisia and Egypt, recurrent victims of terrorist acts, have lost a large part of the tourist manna, which respectively accounted for 15.2% and 12.8% of their GDP in 2014 (according to the World Travel and Tourism Council). It's not just in the Arab countries that tourists are targeted, as recalled the attack in Bangkok, Thailand, there are eleven days. "The risk exists everywhere," sighs René-Marc Chikli.

Thailand: a short-term effect but moderate

On 17 August, the attack on the Hindu Erawan Shrine, a place much frequented by tourists in the heart of the Thai capital, had 20 deaths. According to the defense minister, Prawit Wongsuwan, "the authors wanted to destroy the economy and tourism," which represented no less than 19.3% of the country's GDP in 2014 (World Travel and Tourism Council). With the influx of Chinese visitors, the sector had experienced a sharp rebound since the beginning of the year more than 28.8 million foreign tourists were expected in 2015, against 25 million last year, a troubled period a military coup. The impact of recent attacks remains even more uncertain than the motivations of the perpetrators have not been clarified. But 23 countries have already issued safety recommendations to their nationals. Package tours from Hong Kong were canceled until late August. An analyst with Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish bank predicted in the short term, a probable 10% decrease in the number of tourists in Thailand. French side, "maybe tour operators adapt their programs by reducing visits to Bangkok or bypassing the capital," Jean-Marc Roze bet. Ultimately, unless new event, the effect is expected to remain moderate. "This country has no structural problems of security," Judge Olivier Guitta, director of consulting company GlobalStrat political risk.
> Tourism weight in the economy: 15.2% of GDP in 2014 (total contribution, including indirect effects).
> Recent attacks: killing the Bardo Museum in Tunis, March 18 (22 dead) and the beach in Sousse, 26 June (38 dead).
> Estimated impact: 30% decline in the number of French tourists between 2014 and 2015.

Tunisia: English desert, the French are wary

On the other side of the Mediterranean, the shooting of the Museum of Bardo in Tunis on March 18, during which 22 people were killed, dealt a first blow to tourism. "Since the Italian cruise ship there are more" notes Olivier Guitta. The slaughter that followed, June 26, on the beach in Sousse, causing 38 deaths (including 30 Britons), further strengthened the confidence of tourists. "This is the second deadliest attack of British citizens abroad since 11 September 2001," says the expert. Tour operators Anglo-Saxon Thomas Cook, Thomson and First Choice have canceled all their trips until next spring. Unlike the UK, France does not recommend its citizens to travel to Tunisia. However, the risk exists. On August 19, a policeman was murdered in Sousse. "The security services are disorganized since the fall of Ben Ali, in 2011. The border with Libya in war is a sieve, and the number of radicalized people is huge for such a small country," says Olivier Guitta. This summer, the French have not totally shunned this very cheap destination, supported by several communication campaigns in the wake of the attacks. "There will be between 400 000 and 500 000 French tourists in Tunisia in 2015, against 700,000 in recent years," said Jean-Marc Roze, the SNAV. It's still a decline of 30-40% compared to 2014 years which was already poor.

•  Tourism weight in the economy: 19.3% of GDP in 2014 (total contribution, including indirect effects).
•  Last attack: attack Hindu Erawan Shrine in Bangkok on August 17 (20 dead).
•  Estimated impact: 10% decline in the short term.

Egypt tourism has dropped by a third since 2010

In 2015, no tourist has been the victim of terrorism in Egypt, but he almost. On 10 June, an attack was foiled in Luxor: two gunmen were neutralized by the police in the car park opposite the temple of Karnak. A month later, the Islamic state was the Italian consulate in Cairo (one death). Multiple attacks have also affected the army in the Sinai desert. Finally, a Croatian national was abducted in the suburbs of Cairo and executed by Daech early August. This chronic violence, the military government fails to stem despite a repressive policy, has made Egypt a "marginal" destination for the French, according to Jean-Marc Roze. Despite a fragile rebound in 2014 (+ 4% compared to 2013), the country had received 9.9 million foreign visitors, far from the record high of 14.7 million reached in 2010 before the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak. In light of recent events, the target of 11.5 million tourists for 2015 seems difficult to achieve. "It's a vicious circle: the lack of tourists aggravates the situation in the country" regrets Jean-Marc Roze.
> Tourism Weight: 12.8% of GDP in 2014 (total contribution, including indirect effects).
> Recent attacks: shooting at Karnak, on 10 June (2 terrorists killed) and beheading of a Croatian citizen in Cairo, August 11.
> Estimated impact: lower third of the number of foreign visitors in five years (2010-2014).
Greece, Spain, Italy fallback destinations
"Since the attacks in Paris, there is a vis-à-vis distrust of the Arab-Muslim world. The Morocco and suffers from disaffection, no intrinsic reason, as Turkey. However, Greece did a super season. This is the principle of communicating vessels, says Jean-Marc Roze. Spain, Portugal and Italy took advantage of the problems of Tunisia. "According to the travel agency sales barometer of SNAV, the French reservations in Greece increased by 18% in July. In Spain, they increased by 9%. The misfortune of some makes the happiness of others.